The New Zealand Institute
| Grade | NZ Rank | Trend | Latest Value | 2015 Target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | 3rd of 34 | Bad | 2.7 Ha | 2.5 | Plenty of land but declining land per capita |
Agricultural land provides food to feed New Zealand’s population. The large amount of developed land per person combined with temperate climate, abundant and reliable rainfall, and advanced technology also provides a large surplus for export.
Agriculture has been the most important source of income to fund New Zealand’s economic development. Introduction of refrigeration at the end of the 19th century allowed meat shipment to the United Kingdom and for nearly a century exports provided sufficient income to make New Zealand a wealthy country. When the United Kingdom joined the European Union in 1973 New Zealand’s income fell. In response, export products were diversified and new markets were developed. Agriculture and horticulture still makes an important contribution, providing over half of New Zealand’s export earnings in 2009.
Growing global population and on-going land degradation have led to increased food supply constraints recently. Globally, food prices have increased, and the number of undernourished people has increased from around 800 million over 1995-97 to an estimated 925 million in 2010 (The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO). Climate change is expected to further threaten food supplies creating four trends that are likely to be important for New Zealand’s future.
First, food prices are likely to continue to increase, providing a boost to New Zealand’s economy. Growing affluence in some developing countries is expected to increase demand for the protein products we export. The more land we have available for food production per person, the larger the benefit from growing incomes.
Increased concern for food security is changing the nature of globalisation. Governments in food constrained regions such as the Middle East and China are seeking agricultural investments in countries that have food surpluses. Already there is increased international interest in investing in New Zealand agriculture and this is likely to continue.
Growing food demand with constrained supply will drive on-going intensification of agriculture. In New Zealand that is likely to lift output and possibly incomes but it will also increase the importance of addressing environmental pressures from growing demand for water and pollution.
Finally, population growth, industrialisation, and climate change progress are leading to overshooting the carrying capacity of the Earth. Local availability of abundant agricultural land will provide an important protection for New Zealand’s population.
New Zealand is third in the OECD on the measure of agricultural land per person, as shown in Figure 1. Australia has the most agricultural land per capita in the OECD, but much of that land has very low productivity. The other leading countries, Iceland and Canada, have shorter productive seasons because of their exposure to cold winters.
New Zealand scores very well when the quality of agricultural land is taken into account. However, New Zealand has two disadvantages not captured in the measure. Firstly only a small portion of our land endowment is suitable for cropping and secondly, some New Zealand soils lack important nutrients.
Over the last 20 years agricultural land per capita has reduced from almost five to less than three hectares per person, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 3 shows that the reduction has resulted from both losses of productive land and from population growth, with population having the larger effect.
Population growth and urban expansion in the Auckland region illustrates the decline in productive land capacity. The State of the Auckland Region 2009 report by the Auckland Regional Council identified (p.41) that between 2001 and 2006, urban development in the Auckland region replaced prime agricultural land at a rate of about 333 hectares per year: an increase from 228 hectares per year between 1987 and 2001.
Figure 3 also shows that, if the population grows as projected and agricultural land does not decline from what was available in 2009, then agricultural land per person will reduce by 2031 to 2.2 hectares per person. At that level there will still be abundant land to support New Zealand’s population. However, the potential economic contribution of agriculture per person will be much reduced from its contribution in 1990, depending on price and intensification outcomes.
The sources of change in forest, grassland, crop and other land between 1990 and 2008 are shown in Figure 4. Between 1990 and 2009 land-use change occurred on around three percent of New Zealand’s total land area. Planted forest increased by around 38% from 1990, mostly on land that was previously low-producing grassland. Some of that land would have previously been used for sheep farming. Over 1990-2009 606,706 hectares of new forest was established and 96,688 hectares was deforested. Most of the deforestation occurred since 2004.
The Ministry for the Environment’s (MfE) Land Use Environmental Snapshot January 2010, shows that New Zealand has the second largest proportion of grassland out of 30 OECD countries, the sixth largest proportion of forest, the second smallest proportion of land used for cropping and horticulture and the smallest proportion of ‘other land’. MfE’s Soil Health Environmental Snapshot January 2010, reports only 35% of monitored soils under productive land uses meet all soil health target ranges. Of the monitored soils, 60% of horticulture soils met all target ranges while soils under drystock (i.e. sheep and beef farming) and dairy land uses were least likely to meet the target ranges. These results differ from public perceptions surveyed in 2008, when 80% perceived soil health to be adequate, good or very good and 70% perceived soil is adequately, well or very well managed.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry has had a sustainable agriculture facilitation programme running since 1995 which aims to encourage the adoption of sustainable resource management practices so that the agricultural and horticultural sectors make a long term contribution to New Zealand‘s social, economic and environmental wellbeing.
MfE has information available on its website regarding sustainable land management and biodiversity initiatives in rural communities. MfE’s goals for New Zealand land are to ensure that New Zealand has healthy and productive soils, to mitigate areas contaminated and avoid further contamination, and to minimise hillside erosion caused by human activities.
Local action for sustainable land management is a positive aspect of New Zealand’s approach. In 1996 the NZ Landcare Trust was established and now works with farmers, landowners and more than 150 community based groups around New Zealand to address local land-management issues. These include land and water monitoring, pest and weed control, along with re-vegetation and research into alternative land management techniques. The Trust works on a range of field based projects, from large ‘catchment based’ projects that deal with complex issues to small projects with a specific biodiversity focus.
In September 2007 government committed $170 million over the next five years to develop and deliver a plan of action relating to sustainable land management and climate change.
The Auckland Regional Council’s State of the Auckland Region 2009 report has built up a picture over the decades from the ARC’s monitoring and research programmes. It gives an overall assessment of the use of land, freshwater and marine life in the Auckland region. Results from the report show that land and soil across the region are failing to sustain their maximum productivity levels, largely due to soil degradation caused by land use activities.
Data available on New Zealand’s land use is not as good as one would expect for such an important resource. The Government announced in August 2011 that it will fund $4 million over four years to thoroughly map New Zealand’s changing land use using satellite technology, geospatial mapping techniques and advanced computer power. The programme will be led by Landcare Research with involvement from the Ministry for the Environment, Department of Conservation, Ministry of Agriculture & Forestry and regional councils.
Land is limited and as population grows, pressure for urban expansion into productive land rises. As a result agricultural land per capita is likely to decline without some strategy for its retention into the future. Land use changes in response to population pressures are managed at regional and local council levels. There is no nationwide population strategy or guidance addressing such issues.
Relative to other OECD countries New Zealand is very well endowed with high quality agricultural land and has low population density. Improvement in farming and horticultural practices ensures that New Zealand’s land is productive and its intensified.
Government and communities in New Zealand are taking an active interest in managing productive land, targeting productivity and sustainability, although there is little focus on protecting the size of the productive land resource. The recent rate of decline in agricultural land per person is so rapid that if it persists as projected then New Zealand will move much closer to the OECD average.
New Zealand’s agricultural land endowment would be graded A but the rate of decline, driven largely by population growth, means it is a B.
The optimal rate of population growth in New Zealand is an important question but is beyond the scope of the target-setting effort here. Therefore the target of 2.5 Ha is set by assuming the forecast population for New Zealand in 2015 and assuming the amount of agricultural land is held constant at the 2009 level.
Agricultural land per capita is the sum of areas under a) arable land which is defined as land under temporary agricultural crops, temporary meadows for mowing or pasture, land under market and kitchen gardens and land temporarily fallow (less than five years); b) permanent crops which is defined as land cultivated with long-term crops which do not have to be replanted for several years, along with land under trees and shrubs producing flowers and nurseries (except those for forest trees); and permanent meadows and pastures which is defined as land used permanently (five years or more) to grow herbaceous forage cops either cultivated or growing wild The resulting value is then divided by New Zealand’s population to obtain the agricultural land per capita figures.
Figure 1: Data is from the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) Statistics Division for the United Nations. Agricultural area retrieved 9 August 2011 from http://faostat.fao.org/site/377/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=377#ancor. Population estimated and projected retrieved 9 August 2011 from http://faostat.fao.org/site/550/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=550#ancor.
Figure 2: As per Figure 1. A weighted average was used to calculate the OECD average and World average lines. Data from 1999 to 2002 has been excluded as unexplained variations occurred in New Zealand’s data.
Figure 3: As per Figure 1 plus Statistics New Zealand, Demographic Trends 2010, Tables for chapter 7, National demographic projections, Table 7.01: Projected population of New Zealand, 1991–2061 (2009-base). Retrieved 5 April 2011 from http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/demographic-trends-2010.aspx.
Figure 4: Ministry for the Environment (2011) New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2009, retrieved 9 August 2011 from http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate/greenhouse-gas-inventory-2011/index.html.
Further information links for agricultural land
Auckland Regional Council, State of the Auckland Region 2009 (2010, March 16), available at http://www.arc.govt.nz/plans/reports/state-of-the-environment-report.cfm.
Ministry for the Environment (2010, January) Environmental Snapshot Land: Land Use, available at http://www.mfe.govt.nz/environmental-reporting/report-cards/land-use-environmental-snapshot/2010/index.html.
Ministry for the Environment (2010, January) Environmental Snapshot Land: Soil Health, available at http://www.mfe.govt.nz/environmental-reporting/report-cards/soil-health/2010/index.html.
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