The New Zealand Institute
| Grade | NZ Rank | Trend | Latest Value | 2015 Target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 26th of 30 | Good | 16.8 t | 13.6 | Emissions high, declining due to weather and recession |
The measure of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere tracks the threat to New Zealand from climate change. This measure, CO2e emissions per capita, assesses how effectively New Zealand is changing activities to reduce its own contribution to climate change. CO2e includes CO2 as well as the warming contribution of other greenhouse gases, with the contribution of each gas expressed as a CO2 equivalent.
Lord Nicholas Stern, a specialist adviser on economics and climate change, estimates that average global CO2e emissions per person should be 7 tonnes per annum in 2010 and 4 tonnes in 2030 to avoid a 2 degree Celsius rise in average temperature that would lead to an estimated 50% chance of abrupt climate change. In 2005 the estimated global average emissions per person was 6.8 tonnes.
New Zealand’s current CO2e emissions per capita is 16.8 tonnes per person indicating that a large reduction of emissions will be required if the threat from climate change is to be reduced.
As a very small country New Zealand’s direct contribution to climate change is small, around 0.2% of global emissions, but reducing emissions contributes to the global action needed. Each country will only agree to make efforts to reduce emissions if other countries do too, so New Zealand needs to demonstrate the country will participate and do its share. The contribution of 4.4 million New Zealanders is higher than almost all other groups of 4.4 million people in the world. New Zealand is also likely to be a participant in any future multilateral agreement to reduce emissions.
As a small country dependent on exports and promoting green credentials, New Zealand needs to make efforts consistent with that branding. Threats to exports from green marketing efforts in other countries such as “food miles” can be countered by demonstrating efforts to reduce emissions.
New Zealand is a high emissions country with the fifth highest emissions per capita among OECD countries. Figure 1 shows that only Australia, Luxembourg, USA and Canada have higher emissions.
The main reason New Zealand’s emissions are higher than average is the large number of cows and sheep here. Around half of New Zealand’s emissions are from ruminant animals. High vehicle ownership, long distances travelled and a relatively inefficient vehicle fleet also contribute to higher than average emissions. Offsetting those disadvantages, New Zealand’s historic investment in hydro and geothermal and recent investment in wind means there is relatively low use of fossil fuels for electricity generation.
Figure 2 shows the trend of emissions per capita in New Zealand. In 2009 New Zealand achieved 16.8 tonnes per person, the lowest point since the series began in 1990. The decline results from reduced economic activity due to the recession and to plentiful rainfall leading to high hydro production and lower use of fossil fuels for electricity generation.
On ratifying the Kyoto Protocol New Zealand agreed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels on average over the 2008-2012 commitment period or take responsibility for any emissions over these levels.
Based on 2009 gross emissions, New Zealand will exceed its Kyoto target emissions by about 20%. New Zealand is not alone in missing the Kyoto target. Figure 3 shows emissions relative to target for selected developed countries. Note that the USA in the end did not agree to comply with its Kyoto target, while Canada did agree but has since withdrawn. Many countries with Kyoto targets are meeting their targets because economic changes have reduced their output, including former Soviet Bloc countries and Iceland. European countries may be the exception to this but the test will be to achieve economic recovery without increasing emissions.
Emissions above the agreed level require purchasing the right to emit from the allowance of some other country; emissions below the permitted level mean New Zealand would have emissions rights to sell, or credits. Credits can also be generated through projects that limit the concentration of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere, either by avoiding emissions that were going to happen, or by trapping emissions so they do not contribute to atmospheric concentration. Growing trees are recognised to capture or trap emissions, and New Zealand is getting a significant credit for trees in the 2008-2012 Kyoto commitment period.
The world-wide exercise of measuring and limiting emissions is meant to alter behaviour so that activities that generate emissions are reduced. If New Zealand continues to generate emissions under the offset protection of trees, then when those trees are cut down or reach the end of their growth cycle, New Zealanders will be faced with a dilemma. It may be that, in order to comply with international commitments and meet market expectations, New Zealanders will either have to abruptly change their behaviours to reduce emissions or perhaps pay substantial penalties to maintain emissions. Targeting and tracking gross emissions will encourage behaviour change to avoid such a dilemma, so the NZahead measure selected does not incorporate offsetting activities such as tree growth.
However the Kyoto Protocol is based on net emissions. So while New Zealand will not meet emissions targets in the first commitment period, there is no liability expected due in part to the growing tree offset. That outcome helps now but the country cannot continue to plant trees indefinitely while growing emissions. Like other countries, New Zealand will have to transition to a low carbon economy.
While gross per capita emissions in New Zealand have declined in recent years, further reductions are required. Emissions levels are not on track to meet the targets to avert climate change (further discussed in the measure CO2 concentration), nor to meet Kyoto’s gross emissions target for New Zealand, and there are some business leaders who say New Zealand is not meeting market expectations.
The Government has laid out targets for future emissions. There have been two targets set, one for 2020 and the other for 2050. The 2020 target is a reduction between 10% and 20% below 1990 emissions levels, and the 2050 target is 50% below.
In both cases these are responsibility targets and can be met through a mixture of domestic emission reductions, the storage of carbon in forests or the purchase of emission reduction units in other countries. That is valuable for New Zealand economically because emissions due to agriculture could be continued here while activities elsewhere in the world could be modified to reduce overall emissions globally. Agriculture is an important part of the New Zealand economy and will be needed to provide food for the world, and emissions from ruminants do not have feasible means of mitigation currently.
The Government has made it clear that the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is the main tool to deliver emissions reductions. There are several complementary programmes like the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases but those programmes deliver a minority of expected reductions for New Zealand.
As part of the Kyoto Protocol, New Zealand must report to the United Nations on how expected emissions reductions will be achieved. The required report involves estimating what emissions would have been under a business-as-usual scenario and forecasting what emissions will be based on mitigation efforts. When the Ministry for the Environment estimated the impact of various programmes for emissions reduction, the ETS was expected to deliver about two thirds of the expected reductions.
However, the reductions from current policies are delivering much less than is required to meet the declared targets. Fully realising the forecast reductions would only progress New Zealand one third of the way towards the 2020 target. Figure 4 shows the actual gross emissions from New Zealand in a solid line. Future paths are shown with dashed lines including forecast emissions based on business as usual, forecast emissions with mitigation measures like the ETS, and forecasts using straight line paths to meet the 10%, 20% and 50% reduction targets.
A United Nations (UN) review of the New Zealand report is a standard step in the Kyoto reporting process. The UN Expert Review Team’s February 2011 report noted there was limited explanation as to how the forecast figures were arrived at and expressed “great concern about the uncertainty associated with the timeline for inclusion of the major sectors under the ETS” and other policies and measures needed to reach the 2020 national target.
The ETS is under review by the New Zealand Government. Guidance to a Review Panel directed its reporting focus to “whether the ETS should continue to scale up to a full obligation and whether new sectors should incur surrender obligations on current legislated timetables after 2012.”
The Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment made a submission to the ETS Review, with specific recommendations that would strengthen the scheme and increase the reduction of emissions. The mechanisms to transition industries gently into the scheme introduce uncertainty and risk achieving little change in behaviour, so the Parliamentary Commissioner recommended the transition periods have certain end dates and more rapid phase-in.
However the Review Panel’s report of September 2011 recommended implementation of the ETS slow down. Full obligations for energy, transport and industrial sectors would not occur in 2013 but be phased in three steps over 2013, 2014, 2015 to ease the price impact on households and businesses. A more gradual entry of agriculture beyond 2015 is also recommended which the Government supported in its initial response to the Panel’s report. Detailed work on the 61 recommendations of the Panel will be further considered by the Government before legislation and policy is finalised.
Government’s plans for emissions reductions in New Zealand aim to minimise disruption and cost. However, the point of the ETS is to achieve change, to avoid dangerous climate change. The mismatch of goals is a source of much debate. There is little point in New Zealand paying a large economic cost to reduce emissions if other countries are not playing their part too.
In the absence of a strong multinational agreement or a strong ETS some businesses are leading the way on their own initiative. Air New Zealand, the New Zealand Wine Company, Urgent Couriers, and dozens of other New Zealand companies have become certified carbon neutral through purchase of offsets. Some business leaders have formed the organisation Pure Advantage to advocate for the pursuit of ‘sustainable economic growth’ with a focus on raising public awareness about the climate crisis and encouraging clean tech, high-value exports and more renewable energy.
New Zealand has one of the highest rates of greenhouse gas emissions per capita in the OECD. While emissions per capita are reducing, the reductions are more the result of growing tree offsets and not the result of domestic reduction efforts. Emissions remain well above the 13.6 tonnes per person level of 1990. Emissions are much higher than the global average emissions required to avoid an unacceptable risk of abrupt climate change which contributes to the overall grade of D.
While New Zealand is not yet moving to a lower emission lifestyle, introduction of the ETS, business efforts and public awareness of the need for change indicate that progress in the future is possible.
The target for 2015 of 13.6 tonnes of CO2e emissions per capita is based on New Zealand meeting the declared targets of 10% to 20% below 1990 emissions per capita by 2020. Assuming straight-line progress towards a 15% reduction relative to 1990 levels by 2020 would mean achieving 13.6 tonnes of CO2e per person in 2015.
Note that this rate of reduction, if achieved by all countries, would still leave the world exposed to an unacceptably high risk of abrupt climate change. Unless the science proves to be wrong, much greater reductions will be needed. If those reductions are not achieved then New Zealand and the world are likely to face a difficult adaptation challenge.
Estimating and summarising the effect and emissions of greenhouse gases can be very complex. There are several gases which create the greenhouse effect; some have more of an effect than others and some remain in the atmosphere much longer than others. You can read more about the science of the greenhouse effect and the relative impact of the various gases at the New Zealand Government website http://www.climatechange.govt.nz/ or follow links to further sources from the ‘start here’ page at http://www.realclimate.org. To simplify the discussion, the effect of different gases is often translated into the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide that would result in a similar effect on the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is the most common of the greenhouse gases, in terms of volume emitted by mankind’s activities.
Measuring and accounting for these various gases is also very complex, as some activities are included and others excluded for various reasons from a nation’s account. In this discussion, changes due to LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) are generally excluded as the desire is to focus on emitting activities.
More details about definitions of emissions terms for measurement purposes can be found on the UNFCCC website http://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/items/2722.php.
There are vocal segments of the population which question climate change theory and evidence. In the documentary film The Great Global Warming Swindle scientists, economists, writers, politicians and others dispute the scientific evidence for man-made global warming and assert that the consensus opinion has been influenced by funding and political factors. The website http://www.skepticalscience.com/ is an effective resource to help you assess the merits of arguments on the topic, relying on peer-reviewed research but summarising the science in concise, approachable plain English.
For more New Zealand specific information see a blog you can find at http://hot-topic.co.nz/.
Figure 1: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2011). National Inventory Submissions, data for individual countries retrieved as released April 2011 from http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/5888.php.
Note: Data is not available for Chile, Israel, Mexico or South Korea.
Population data from The Conference Board (January 2011). Total Economy Database, retrieved 1 May 2011 from http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/.
Figure 2: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2011), GHG emission profiles for Annex I parties – New Zealand, retrieved 10 August 2011 from http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/ghg_ data_unfccc/ghg_profiles/item/4625.php.
Population data as for Figure 1.
Figure 3: Greenhouse gas emissions for 2009 as for Figure 1. Kyoto targets retrieved 4 May 2011 from http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/3145.php. Performance relative to target calculated.
Figure 4: Actual emissions data as for Figure 2. Forecast emissions data from Ministry for the Environment (December 2009). New Zealand’s Fifth National Communication, retrieved 11 August from http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate/nz-fifth-national-communication/page6.html. Target data calculated. Straight line paths shown would be required to meet the 10%, 20% or 50% reduction targets.
Further information link for CO2e emissions per capita
The New Zealand’s CO2 concentration measure available at http://www.nzinstitute.org/index.php/nzahead/measures/co2_concentration_in_the_atmosphere1/.
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